Introduction: Although the capital is optimistic, the timing is right, the conditions are available, there is no shortage of money, no shortage of talents, flexible mechanism, complete ecology, outstanding long-board, fan enthusiasm... However, crossovers want to succeed in the smart electric vehicle industry. There are also many challenges.
A 10-year investment of 10 billion U.S. dollars and an initial investment of 10 billion yuan to build high-quality smart electric vehicles with a wholly-owned method... On March 30, Xiaomi announced a cross-border car manufacturing, becoming another company entering the automotive industry after Apple and Baidu. ICT (Information and Communication Technology) companies.
Why does Xiaomi build cars across borders? Is it too late to enter a new field at this time? The last round of investment in new energy vehicles once spawned hundreds of new brands in China. In just five or six years, only a few companies such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal have emerged. Now that a new round of smart electric vehicles is making a comeback, what has happened to the logic behind it?
In the author's opinion, Apple, Xiaomi, Baidu and other companies are determined to build vehicles across the border. There are three main driving forces:
One is capital. In 2020, Tesla's market value has risen seven times, exceeding the combined market value of the world's nine largest automotive multinational companies, reaching nearly one-third of Apple's $2 trillion market value. With annual sales of less than 50,000 vehicles, the market value of Weilai has soared 17 times a year. Obviously, in the eyes of capital market investors, whether the traditional automobile industry or the ICT industry represented by smart phones, the imagination space has gradually narrowed, and it is a realistic choice to switch to smart electric vehicles.
The second is timing. According to Everett Rogers’ innovation diffusion theory, when the market share of innovative products exceeds a certain percentage, products will enter rapid growth due to the increase in the maturity of new technologies, the decline in supply chain costs, the cultivation of consumption habits, and the growth of surrounding ecology. period. For smart phones, this proportion is 4%, and the time is 2010. In June of that year, iPhone4 went on the market, 39 months later, the former mobile phone "overlord" Nokia was acquired by Google. At the end of 2019, the share of electric vehicles in the global automotive market happened to reach 4%. In 2020, despite the impact of the epidemic, sales of new energy vehicles in China have increased by 10.9%, and the European market has soared by 142%. It can be said that the best time window to enter the smart electric vehicle industry has come.
The third is the condition. The auto industry has heavy assets, long-term cycles, tens of thousands of parts, complex supply chains, but low gross profit margins. The thresholds for standards, technology, manufacturing, and services that have been built over the past 100 years have also increased the difficulty for cross-border players. This is also one of the reasons why Apple temporarily abandoned building cars around 2016. However, the in-depth changes in automotive R&D, supply chain, manufacturing, after-sales service and other fields brought about by electrification are gradually flattening these thresholds. The exploration and rise of the professional foundry model represented by Foxconn will even change the asset-heavy nature of the auto industry, allowing Apple to replicate its asset-light and high-profit model in the smart phone field. At the same time, the tide of intelligence and connectivity is pushing automobiles into a new form-software definition, data-driven, remote iteration, user operation... These are the natural longboards of ICT companies.
Although the capital is optimistic, the timing is right, the conditions are available, and there is no shortage of money, no shortage of talents, flexible mechanism, complete ecology, outstanding long-term development, and fan enthusiasm... However, crossovers want to succeed in the smart electric vehicle industry and challenge the same A lot. For example, based on a forward-looking analysis of customer pain points, mass-production technologies and costs, and industry trends, product definitions for the first model must be made at least 24 months in advance, and plans for subsequent 1-2 products must be made. In today's accelerated transformation of the industry, rapid market growth, and explosive breakthroughs in new technologies, it is not easy to follow the rhythm, and it is even more challenging for crossovers.
Another example is that cross-border "pioneers" such as Weilai have stepped through many "pits" in the areas of mass production of models, supply chain building, digital construction, and core technology, and have paid a lot of tuition fees. As a later crossover, how to learn from experience and lessons, improve decision-making and execution efficiency, and avoid detours, challenges are not small.
Of course, more companies enter the market, spurring the acceleration of industry fission, and creating opportunities for crossovers. How to innovate and change, break boundaries, bring better products and experiences, redefine the manufacturing, sales, service and even profit models of the automobile industry, and open up new paths for user operations? Both the industry and consumers are looking forward to the answers from crossovers.
